Is Chinese Property Overheating or Cooling Off?
China’s National Bureau of Statistics released the March real
estate data today, and the record 11.7% y/y increase in the 70-city price
index is making waves. The major coastal cities saw large increases (Shenzhen,
20.1%; Beijing, 12.3%; Shanghai, 10.7%), while central and western cities
typically saw smaller gains. The rise in property prices in the two cities on
Hainan Island was a jaw-dropping 50% y/y. Even the month-on-month data should
give pause to those arguing there is no bubble in Chinese property. Prices
jumped 1.1% m/m, accelerating from the brief pause for the Chinese New Year in
February, when prices were up 0.9% m/m.